Chapter 1027 Zheng Wanwan(2/2)
First, Latin American governments have come forward to take over domestic private debts, in the name of preventing corporate bankruptcy from causing losses to the national economy, but in fact it is a debt preservation measure; second, significantly reduce government budgets, cancel government food and living subsidies to the people, and save financial resources to repay foreign debts;
Third, let the currency depreciate to increase exports and earn foreign exchange to repay debts; fourth, the IMF will carry out debt restructuring against Latin American debtor countries.
There is one and two, there is one and there is one and there is a ba, which can easily form a chain reaction. Therefore, the 42nd Assault Battalion of the Royal Marine Corps, a small team of Army SAS and the Royal Navy Special Boat Commando were eating fish and chips, humming songs, and going to the island to fight the bandits.
On May 8, 1945, the Allies and the Soviet army met in Berlin, thus announcing the end of World War II. Just like after the end of World War I, the United States also experienced a crisis of overproduction, but the United States learned the lessons of World War I and had made special institutional arrangements in the Bretton Woods system. The United States indirectly provided import credit to Europe through the World Bank to purchase American goods.
"Simon, what is the most likely thing you are talking about?" Nan Yi asked.
By early 1947, loans through the World Bank had already seemed too "controlled". US Secretary of State Marshall visited Moscow and then walked around again. He found that the European economy was still weak.
Argentina's behavior naturally stimulated the nerves of the UK. Downing Street was very clear and worried that if Britain was frightened by Argentina's recapture of the Malvinas Islands and did not do anything, Argentina would have to pay the debt next. You should know that there are many debts in Argentina's foreign debts in the hands of the UK.
South Bank Ma Shimin: "Thailand's current foreign debt is US$68.9 billion, of which one-year short-term debt is US$18.7 billion, while Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are US$35.45 billion. Thailand is unlikely to have a debt crisis this year.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was generally loose. Except for the oil crisis, the federal funds rate remained at a low level. The average annual interest rate in 1970 was 7.2%, and fell back to 5.8% in 1975. The low interest rate environment reduced the borrowing costs of Latin American countries.
"So you're optimistic that Thailand will ask for help from the IMF?"
Nan Yi smiled, "Is the collateral enough?"
Speaking of Zheng Baiwan's profit model, it can be said that it is very simple. Because of the large amount of goods and the mutual help of Changhong, Zheng Baiwan's profit price is lower than that of other small dealers. Needless to say, where Zheng Baiwan has to stand aside, other dealers have to stand aside.
In terms of total volume, the scale of foreign debt in Latin America expanded sharply in the 1970s, and the proportion of foreign debt balance to GDP continued to rise. In 1970, Mexico, Argentina and Brazil were US$6.3 billion, while the average foreign debt balance in 1980 had soared to US$52.3 billion.
"Master Nan, do you mean the Huang brothers?"
As a result, the Argentine economy fell into a vicious cycle. On the one hand, the currency depreciation policy did not bring about an increase in exports, nor did it obtain sufficient foreign exchange income; on the other hand, the depreciation caused the increase in the cost of repaying foreign debts of domestic enterprises, and the burden was getting heavier.
From the perspective of income, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike triggered the continued appreciation of the US dollar, the global commodity prices denominated in US dollars fell, export income of Latin American countries plummeted, and the debt repayment base was damaged.
Nan Yi knew in his heart that once the Thai baht depreciated, most of the Thai customers who borrowed from Nanguo Bank were unable to replenish the collateral.
In fact, Britain, France and the United States have been analyzing the lessons of World War I. Their consensus is that the harsh war reparations cannot be actually achieved, which eventually led to economic chaos after World War I. Therefore, the allies after World War II did not raise the issue of war reparations except pushing war criminals to the trial stage.
Especially from the mid-1950s to the 1960s, the average annual industrial growth of Latin American countries was more than 8%, with an average annual GDP of 6.5. The per capita GDP increased from more than 400 US dollars to more than 1,000 US dollars in just over 10 years, which is known as the Latin American miracle of the world economy.
With a series of measures, the US dollar has barely overcome the difficulties.
With the process of global financial integration, European and American commercial banks have increased their credit supply to Latin American countries.
If you can make up all the loan, then wait until the loan expires, and you have to distinguish how to repay the loan. By breaking down the east wall to make up the west wall to repay the loan, it is included in the honest customer and relying on profit to repay the loan. It is a super high-quality customer. It will be very easy to think of a loan in the future.
Nanyi pulled up the zipper, walked to the washstand, opened the faucet, "Did you hurt someone or get injured?"
It is not difficult to see that IMF is like chemotherapy. Although there are several cases of curing through chemotherapy, compared with the numerous failed cases, it is not worth mentioning. As long as chemotherapy is used, the patient will lose half his life if he can cure the disease.
"Mr. Nan, I'm in trouble."
"Zheng Baiwan has stepped on it."
"Um?"
This trick is really effective. Not only does European countries need US dollars and transfer to London without borrowing from the United States, but some American companies have put their overseas income in London to avoid high domestic tax rates.
That is to say, if the United States cuts interest rates or places large amounts of base currency, capital will flow to high-interest rates in Europe; if interest rates are raised or money supply is reduced to prevent capital flight, the US real economy will inevitably be further suppressed.
On July 18, 1963, the helpless Kennedy could only hope for fiscal policy. He strongly demanded that Congress pass a bill to 15% tax on outflow capital. As soon as he finished speaking, Wall Street cursed and the bill was fiercely opposed by British and American financial giants.
"Liuzi, what's the matter?" Nan Yi clamped the phone on his shoulder and rustled in his hand.
What is the Bretton Woods monetary system?
First, currencies in various countries are pegged to the US dollar, with a volatility not exceeding 1%; second, the US dollar is pegged to gold, and countries can exchange US dollars for gold at any time, with the gold price fixed at 35 US dollars per ounce; third, the International Monetary Fund is established as the world central bank, and some countries have temporary US dollar shortages, and the IMF provides liquidity for it; fourth, the International Reconstruction and Development Bank (the predecessor of the World Bank), which provides infrastructure reconstruction loans to countries that are in trouble.
Fortunately, Galtiri succeeded.
"Simon, where are you?"
On January 2, 1960, Kennedy faced 300 supporters in the secret Senate meeting room and announced that he would run for the 35th US President. However, at this time, the dollar selling frenzy rushed to the extreme in Europe. The price of gold in London rose to $41.5 per ounce, which meant that the dollar depreciated by more than 20%.
"There is a Haipai Electric Appliances Store in Zhaojiabang. We just finished the supply there, and Zheng Baiwan's people also came. People from both sides met. It wasn't that much at that time. Later, it might be that the boss of Haipai revealed our price to Zheng Baiwan's people. I don't know what happened. They found the guesthouse where our people live, and they started arguing for a few words."
Ma Shimin: "US$7.2 billion, US$900 million due in half a year, US$2.1 billion due in one year... All loans will expire within 19 months."
At this time, the United States was greedy for export benefits in the traditional sense. From the perspective of later generations, the trade competition between the great powers was actually a surplus competition. Through credit to Europe, it was possible to digest the US production capacity while obtaining huge trade benefits.
Ma Shimin: "If the Thai baht depreciates greatly, the value of the collateral will not be enough."
"Master Nan, we are also Changhong's dealers." Liuzi's voice trembled.
Faced with such a situation, Argentina's over-issuance of currency depreciated the peso in order to stimulate exports and exchange for foreign exchange to repay debts. However, the major developed countries at that time were seriously unemployed due to the economic recession, and even if Argentina provides a large amount of cheap goods, they were unable to consume.
In January 1961, Kennedy entered the White House. In the same year, the 28-year "Cold War" between the United States and the Soviet Union officially kicked off.
Nan Yi thought briefly, "It is best to be able to talk about peace first, but it is best to talk about it if you can't talk about it. However, there are some things you have to do ahead."
Ma Shimin: "I agree."
The famous Marshall Plan made Americans rich quickly and also accelerated the recovery of the European economy. Two years later, in October 1949, the United States' gold reserves had reached more than 40 billion US dollars, accounting for 78% of the gold reserves of countries around the world.
Zheng Baiwan is not a person's name, but the name of a company. It used to be just a state-owned department store cultural supplies wholesale station in Shangdu. Later, the shareholding reform was carried out and became Zheng Baiwan Co., Ltd., and its business was also changed. It no longer focused on cultural supplies, but entered the field of color TV.
Speaking of which, after World War II, Latin American countries adopted a strategy of import substitute industrialization, encouraged the development of their own manufacturing industries, and exported large quantities of primary products with rich domestic resources. Therefore, these countries developed rapidly in their economy.
When making a loan, the customer needs to explain the purpose of the loan. For example, when investing in the factory capacity upgrade, the customer must spend every penny on it, otherwise it will be a default, and Nanguo Bank has the right to urge the loan in advance.
However, with the emergence of the Euro dollar market, more and more dollars are leaving the United States, which will inevitably threaten the Bretton Woods system.
For Nan Yi, the evil side of the IMF is not his business. He just wants to get a little bit related to the cute side of the IMF. Nan's family was born at the wrong time during the Latin American feast, and the Southeast Asian feast cannot be missed.
"Nanguo Bank is a credible and humane bank. If you can do something to urge loans in advance, you won't do it. However, the collateral must be based on the contract, and if the insufficient one is needed, our customers will make up for it."
Therefore, this move not only did not bring back the Argentina economy, but instead caused serious inflation, with the inflation rate as high as 230%, the actual income of workers was only equivalent to 50% in 1970, and the national unemployment rate of the working population was as high as more than 30%.
Especially Europe recovered from the ruins of war, the machines used were newer and more advanced than the United States, and the goods manufactured were better and cheaper than the United States. Therefore, under the combined force of war, old industries and European competition, the global trade pattern began to reverse.
In order to repay debts, Latin American debtors have been frugal, and almost all social welfare has disappeared. Mexico has suffered a serious shortage of imported drugs, and the mortality rate of infants has increased significantly. Although debtors are about to actively repay debts, the debt is getting more and more. In 1982, the total debt is US$839 billion, and by 1987, this number has become US$1300 billion.
This trend has continued to this day. The City of London is not only the European dollar market, but also the world's largest currency trading market.
After Marshall returned to the United States, he formulated a European revival plan based on the Dawys plan after World War I, known as the Marshall Plan. According to this plan, the United States bypassed the World Bank and began to directly provide more loans to Europe, which not only helped the allies, but also helped Germany and Japan.
In order to promote the implementation of the import substitution strategy and stimulate rapid economic development, major Latin American countries have long implemented deficit fiscal and expansionary monetary policies, thus becoming the region with the most serious inflation in the world.
The United States, which frequently failed on the battlefield, began to block China's economy. The first thing it did was to freeze all China's assets in the United States, but unexpectedly, this trick scared Europeans.
"What trouble?"
With the excess profits brought by trade, Wall Street also swept away the bleakness of the 1930s. In contrast, the New York Branch of the Fed, the executive agency of the issuance of the US dollar, was extremely busy, and the supply of the US dollar continued to increase significantly. Behind this growth is the rolling flow of gold from all over the world into the United States.
While the country was in a state of turmoil, Galtieri, a soldier, quickly set the solution to the problem on "war" - to use military means to recover the Malvinas Islands and divert domestic conflicts.
The scale of foreign debt continues to expand, and the proportion of short-term debts has risen rapidly, raising debt risks.
"Master Nan, you don't know. After entering this year, the profits of many electrical appliances have fallen. There are so many people in Jingxi Yigou, I don't want to find a way to earn more and I can't support it."
"Do we make sense?"
"Um."
Hang up the phone, Nan Yi walked back to the table, turned off the mute, "Continue."
...
You said that I had water in the last chapter and half wronged me (at most half water). If I had no idea about IMF, some of the contents behind might be difficult to understand. Forget it, I won’t explain much, and there will be no water later.
Chapter completed!