Chapter 1102 The financial tsunami is imminent(2/2)
Nan Yi sighed and said, "Look for a few more, it's only three years. You can't make a thing leave. In six years, you can't produce a famous musician. This part of the game will be closed, and the theme songs and interludes will be directly collaborated with the outside world.
There is a Richie Jen who has not made a name for several years. At the end of last year, he released a new album and was sold in Hong Kong and Taiwan. I have seen someone selling it in Yangcheng, and it won’t be long before it will be sold here.
Come on, while he is not popular in the mainland, go to the record company early and can work together to hold several concerts.
Sister Xingfu, if I hand over Baiguang Company to me, I can make 50 million this year and I can make over 100 million next year. Now is a beautiful era for making music and releasing records. If by the end of the year, I hear that Baiguang not only does not make money, but goes inside.
I'll slap your butt with the news of the money."
Gong Xue said dissatisfiedly: "You will only criticize me. Wangbei Media is your business, can't you contribute any effort?"
"I have to do everything myself. Why do I support you? Do what I want to do? Love the company, study more carefully. Wangbei Media's performance last year was not good. Your salary increase report was approved, and the report on increasing dividends was suppressed.
Now, you have entered a state of waiting to be observed. There is no major improvement this year, so you will receive a warning letter.”
"The higher authorities will send this and that. Last year, Wangbei Media's profit increased by 27.3% compared with the previous year. Do you want to say that I didn't do well?" Gong Xue became increasingly dissatisfied.
Nan Yi got up and walked to the water dispenser to pick up a glass of water for himself, "You should do better. In recent years, the talents below have grown very fast. In just two or three years, you need to upgrade to the branch to be responsible for the responsibility of entering the branch.
The ranks of people.
If you are a talent, you must improve your treatment. If you are a talented person, you must be supported to a position that matches your abilities. Newcomers will take over, and relatively unqualified elderly people will naturally give way. Not only you, but other management teams will be the same."
"The senior management wants a major change?"
Nan Yi crumpled the paper cup into a ball and threw it into the trash can, "It is impossible to have a major blood change. It changes in a small range. Forget it, let's not talk about this. I will go to Seoul in a while. Do you want to go over with me for a few days?"
Gong Xue pouted and said, "Did you mean it? I just made me pay more attention to work, and now I'm invited to play?"
“Does these two conflict?”
Gong Xue did not answer positively, but asked, "Which day will you set out?"
"It's not decided yet, there's something else, please wait for me to notify you."
"good."
After leaving Factory 777, Nan Yi spent a few more peaceful days, handling official emails during the day, surfing the Internet, occasionally going fishing, and sending Liu Zhen to aerobics at night. During this period, he would occasionally chat with Rui Xiaodan.
When March comes, Nanyi brings Gong Xuefei to Seoul.
As soon as he entered Seoul, Nan Yi played with Gong Xue for a week. After sending the person away, he focused on observing South Korea's economy. When he observed with his eyes everywhere in Seoul, he had already left the first month.
Zhao Shixian in Bangkok is very busy. This time she not only represents the identity of the president of PY Securities, but also serves as a member of the financial team, the Thai investment agent of Nanguo Bank, and the executor of the 97-98 Asian Strategic Plan of Scarlett Fund.
It can be said that Zhao Shixian is arbitrage person from Nan's family to deal with the financial crisis. She did a good job and Nan's family made a lot of money. She can personally share the generous commissions outside PY Securities. At the same time, she also has the opportunity to impact the deputy group of the financial team.
Long position.
Once she is in the position of deputy team leader, she can almost manage Nan's financial business. In principle, except for the fact that she has always had a weak presence, but is the core Adam Bank and Nan's Investment, all funds,
She has the right to supervise and a certain voice for investment-based companies.
Her identity has also begun to be divided, and she is led by Scarlett and Nan Ruoyan, but in turn can lead them. It depends on what identity she stands up for dialogue.
Last June, Zhao Shixian mobilized $1 billion to enter the Russian stock market. Taking advantage of the Russian stock market's opening up foreign capital, but the stock price is relatively cheap, he has gained a lot of Russian companies' stocks. Now, the fire of the financial crisis is about to be
It is ignited that Japan and South Korea cannot protect themselves. Funds from these two places will soon withdraw from Russia in large quantities. It is time to retreat.
Zhao Shixian is in Bangkok, but she is remotely controlling the Moscow trading team. There are twelve LCD monitors hanging on the wall of her office. Several major stock markets in Asia and foreign exchange markets are displayed. She is often in her mouth.
Issue instructions.
She was eating just a small snack, and the meal had been prepared a few years ago. Until January this year, she borrowed $5 billion worth of one-year baht from Thai banks, and shorted about the forward market.
$2 billion worth of Thai baht.
When Nanguo Bank lends money, she borrows money again. Once she lends money, she will generate huge profits.
At this time, the US dollar interest rate remained at an annualized level of 5.25% for the whole year in 1996, but in Thailand, due to the threat of inflation caused by the overheating of the economy, the one-year interest rate usually remains at 8% to 10% due to the threat of inflation caused by the overheating of the economy.
What’s more interesting is that the interest rates of each bank are different, but they are generally above 10%.
The direct consequence of this situation is that there is a huge amount of hot money for arbitrage. Even local commercial banks in Thailand are very happy to borrow interest rates from overseas at least 3 to 5 percentage points lower than the Thai baht, yen, or marks selling in the market
, and then turn into Thai baht for lending.
The total amount of overseas loans exceeds US$1 trillion, of which more than 95% are short-term loans for less than one year, which means that when the value of the Thai baht is unstable, these hot money will escape Thailand as soon as possible, and then the whole thing will be
Thailand will become ruins.
Naturally, no one can see this crisis. In fact, the Bank of Thailand has discovered the problem. At this moment, the Bank of Thailand Governor Luncha Malaria Nuan was holding a conference call with his allies to discuss how to join forces to face the impact of international financial institutions on the Thai baht
.
“How is the situation with the banking system?”
The question was Hu Cidao, chairman of the board of directors of Li Jiapo Monetary Authority, who was more concerned about the credit status of the Thai banking system than the large amount of short selling of Thai baht in the market.
Unlike the central banks of most countries in the world, the Lijiapo Monetary Authority does not rely on the rise and fall of interest rates to influence finance, but uses foreign currency exchange mechanisms to regulate the SIPG market.
The reason for this is that at this time, the Lijiapo Monetary Administration did not have the right to issue currency, and naturally it could not change the increment of market liquidity. It could only change the entire social liquidity by changing the form of stock, and then affect the entire
Financial market, so the Lijiapo Monetary Authority has more control over the foreign exchange market to a certain extent than the central banks of other countries.
Hu Cidao is not worried about selling in the foreign exchange market, because the funds from Li Jiapo Monetary Authority and the Bank of Thailand are enough to cope with the current situation. However, Hu Cidao knows that the castle is easiest to break from within, and the current economic situation in Thailand is not optimistic.
It is said that the operating conditions of its banking system and financial companies are extremely bad, and there are even rumors that some large banks are on the verge of bankruptcy.
Just last month, the rating agency Moody's reduced the credit ratings of the three major banks, Ayutthaya, Kyoto and Thai soldiers, from A2 to A3, to the extremely dangerous B1. The rating falls into the garbage range means the international financing market.
Close the door to the Thais.
If the problems of the banking system cannot be solved, even if the Thai government resists the blow in the foreign exchange market, the collapse of the banking system will still lead to crazy escape of funds, and then a new round of blows.
"I have discussed this issue with the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance. A new policy will be introduced soon to further increase the margin for bank bad debts." Marragher said warmly.
In fact, except for Li Jiapo, the central banks in Southeast Asia focus on the Thai baht. They know very well that once the Thai baht does not hold back, the next one will be one of them, or all of them.
The officials of these central bankers are aware of the huge harm caused by international hot money, especially hot money led by hedge funds. From the whole of Europe, and from South America two years ago, the tragic scenes are still vivid in my mind.
They did not expect that the crisis would come to Southeast Asia so soon.
"Can you reveal the position of the Bank of Thailand on forward foreign exchange contracts?"
This time I asked about the Secretary for the Monetary Authority of Kazuki, who represented Kazuki to participate in the conference call.
"Ahem..."
Although he was mentally prepared to be asked this question, when he was asked, Mara Jianuan still seemed a little embarrassed. Fortunately, it was a conference call, and others could not see his expression. He was embarrassed for a while.
After he calmed down his emotions, he said: "The position is basically the same as the US dollar we sold, and the quantity is $5 billion."
To cope with selling orders in the cash exchange market, Thai banks must buy Thai baht in the cash exchange market in US dollars. For the sake of value preservation, they have to buy US dollar contracts in the forward market, which forms an opponent with international speculators.
The party who shorts the Thai baht is selling the Thai baht in the cash exchange market, and shorting the Thai baht contract on forward contracts puts double pressure on Thailand. The location of such forward contracts is not fixed, some are in London, and some are in
In New York, some are also in Lijiapo.
According to news from Lijiapo Exchange, during this period, the total daily trading value of Asian currencies is as high as US$6 billion. The trading volume of Thai baht has the fastest growth, which means that the current main force of the attack on international hot money is currently
It's Thailand.
Mara Jianuan did not wait for others to ask questions again and said first: "The most important task at present is to closely monitor the market trends, especially the forward foreign exchange market. If there is a huge sell-off, we must pay attention to the cash exchange market as soon as possible. At that time,
, I hope all countries can help.”
Maraghan's tone was a little begging and his posture was low, but in the current situation in Thailand, he had to let him down and his posture was low.
There was a deep thought behind each line. After a long time, Hu Cidao was the first to say: "Please rest assured, Li Jiapo will definitely support the Thai baht. Our government has prepared 10 billion US dollars and is ready to enter at any time."
The reason why Li Jiapo is strongly favored Thailand is that the Thai economy is closely related to Li Jiapo, and the other is that most short-selling contracts are carried out in the Li Jiapo market. Out of morality, Li Jiapo had to be active.
Of course, Li Jiapo also has his own considerations. Although Thailand has actively built a regional financial center in recent years, it still cannot be compared with a financial center like Li Jiapo and Xiangwu. Li Jiapo wants to actively intervene in the market through this action to make it easier for him to make
People in the world understand that Li Jiapo is not something that people can control at will.
Hearing Li Jiapo's promise, Malaria breathed a sigh of relief. Although he had long guessed that Li Jiapo would fully support Thailand, he felt relieved when he heard Hu Cidao's promise on behalf of the official.
.
"We should also pay attention to the trends in the forward market. I am afraid that we cannot give Thailand too much support. It is estimated that it is only a quota of 1 billion US dollars."
With the first statement, others also expressed their opinions that this time the Philippine Central Bank Governor Gabi Hinson. Like Thailand, the Philippines has also been attacked by international hot money in the forward market, although the situation is not as good as Thailand.
Seriously, but it has reached the point where it is urgent.
After making statements in the Philippines, Malaysia and other countries, they said one by one: "I still need to negotiate here, but we will enter when we need it."
Although Mara Kannen was not very satisfied with Kazuki's statement, she also knew that Kazuki was at a critical moment of historical changes and it was difficult to provide too much support.
At the end of the meeting, Hu Cidao said: "In addition to the support of our parties, the Thai government should also do something to limit the liquidity of investment funds and limit the flow of international hot money."
"We will soon introduce regulations to restrict local banks from lending funds from foreign investors, and at the same time significantly increase the level of offshore lending interest rates, so as to significantly increase the borrowing costs of international hot money."
Hearing that Thailand has been fully prepared, several people who are in the Southeast Asian financial circle were relieved. They believed that with the strength of several countries, they would definitely be able to cope with this currency crisis.
After the meeting, central banks or the Monetary Authority of various countries were chewing on the content of the meeting, and Xiang Wu's move was chewing on the Marragher's words "Restrict local banks from lending funds to foreign investors."
Thailand only needs to have the next executive order, and the entire local banks in Thailand must obey the order, but what about Xianghuo? The MAS is not able to issue such an order in the area known as a free port. If international hot money hits the Hong Kong dollar, Xianghuo will not only raise the lending and borrowing rate.
Besides, what else can I do?
Any move fell into deep thought!
Chapter completed!