Author: Guigu

As June comes, Chen Wenqin, who has been on vacation for a while, came to Seoul.

At this time, "The Best Man" had started filming, and Nan Yi spent most of his time in the crew. He did not interfere in the crew's affairs. He just watched silently and understood the functions and work intensity of each position.

The plan for the heroine is implemented. Nanshi's investment in film and television dramas every year is huge. It starts in units of billions of dollars, and will grow to tens of billions in the future. It is inevitable that there will be smart people who think about digging out the source.

Put a little into your pocket.

A lunch box, a prop, a hidden rule for giving kickbacks, a yin and yang contract, from less to more, if you are unsure and let it go, it will be normal for hundreds of millions to evaporate inexplicably in a year.

Nan Yi spent every day in the crew, chatting with Kim Hye-soo in his spare time and having a meal. As time deepened, he also had a little understanding of the crew's affairs. They were all serious things and nothing messed up.

Occasionally, Nanyi will go to Nan Office and hold a meeting with Nan Office and other team members.

It's June, and the Thai Baht is already in a stalemate. South Korea will soon be lined up, and those who need to be buried must be prepared. During this period, people from all groups have come to form a South Korea strategy group.

On June 19th, there was another big stir in the Thai baht.

As early as last year, the IMF predicted that Thailand is about to face a financial crisis. IMF President Michelle Kantsu has visited Thailand three times since July last year. The third time was just a few days ago, he asked Thailand to stop implementing the implementation of the Thai baht peg to the US dollar.

The exchange rate system and proposes that it can provide assistance to Thailand.

But Thailand did not accept his "good intention". Instead, the Thai Bank announced that Thailand still had up to $32 billion in foreign exchange reserves, enough to defend the Thai baht.

This news spread like wildfire, and many capitals attacking the Thai baht were temporarily stopped and waited and saw it. With their capital scale, it would be difficult to shake the amount of tens of billions of dollars in the short term.

Some people are waiting and watching, while others think that Thailand is playing the empty city plan and bluffing. People who have such ideas include senior executives of Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund.

To determine whether the Thai Bank is lying, you only need to check the Thai Bank's forward positions in the foreign exchange market.

Under the free floating interest rate system, a central bank of a country cannot easily interfere with the fluctuations in the currency value of the foreign exchange market, and naturally cannot actively participate in the operations of the foreign exchange futures market. Although the Thai baht is not a free floating currency, the operations of Thai banks in the forward market are also

It cannot be done directly by yourself, it can only be operated through other commercial banks.

Thai banks will not operate through exchange banks, but can only go through local commercial banks. The forward contract positions of local commercial banks must be presented on the balance sheet, because most commercial banks are listed companies and regularly disclose their finances to the public.

The obligations of the situation can be easily investigated through open channels and supplemented by certain secret means.

Needless to say, if you really find an empty city plan, the bears' attack on the Thai Baht will be even more fierce.

"Not good, there is money to sell the Thai baht!"

The Thai Bank of Thailand, traders had just spent a few days of leisure, and had another party to celebrate keeping the Thai baht. When they were thinking about taking a vacation and relaxing, the market began to fluctuate again.

"How much money?" the supervisor asked immediately.

The orders that will be passed to the Bank of Thailand will definitely be large orders with a single order of more than 100 million baht.

“Trading volume of $1.5 billion, 60 million.”

"Billion baht, 40 million US dollars in trading volume." A trader quickly reported the figure, "and exchanged through the Kankin Bank, he has applied for the allocation of US dollars."

Most of Thailand's US dollar reserves are in Thai bank accounts, and commercial banks do not have much US dollar positions. When large amounts of selling occur, commercial banks can only seek help from Thai banks.

“$6,000 is not too much.”

The first reaction of traders was insignificant. After the defense battle some time ago, their horizons have broadened a lot.

But before they could finish their minds, the phones on the table jumped one by one. Now, their hearts rose again, looked at each other, and quickly answered the phone.

"How much is it to sell for Thai baht??"

"1 billion baht?"

"1.5 billion baht, spot price?"

When the traders put down the phone, they felt cold. Everyone realized that the charge of international hot money was blowing again. But, strangely, where did their Thai baht come from?

How could they have thought that PY Securities had been preparing for many years in order to wait for this day, and also borrowed a lot of Thai baht to quantum funds and tiger funds.

“How is the futures market?”

When the news reached Marragher's warm ears, his first reaction was to know whether the short side was operating in both markets at the same time. If it was just selling in the spot market, it was possible that foreign funds would be remitted.

The situation in both markets is undoubtedly a new round of attacks.

"The situation is not good. There was a huge sell-off at the opening. We are fighting each other."

Maraga Warm traders called the Prime Minister's Office by phone, "Mr. Chavali, I'm afraid our plan has been discovered by them. According to the reports from various commercial banks, there are constant funds in the United States calling, and

They report positions in the forward market.

Moreover, with information reported by the US capital market, hedge funds are currently selling US Treasury bonds on a large scale, preparing to raise funds to attack the Thai baht again, and some of the funds have been sold today."

"What... is coming again?"

An extremely surprised voice came from the microphone, obviously not mentally prepared for the current situation.

"I'm afraid, it's hard for us to resist this time."

Maraghan's voice was extremely bitter, and he didn't want to see the current situation, but the attacks of international hot money were not diverted by his will. The fake news he released obviously did not cover the other party.

The opposite of the microphone was silent for a while, "What about the interest rate hike? How about the interest rate hike? Can it attract some capital inflows?"

There is a kind of operation mode of cross-period arbitrage called risk-free arbitrage. Simply put, it is arbitrage through interest rate spreads in different countries. Most multinational commercial banks will use arbitrage methods, and Nanguo Bank is used, and this is done every year

Arbitrage measures can generate more than 1 billion US dollars in profits.

However, this method seems to be very useful, but the exchange rate risks need to be considered. Once the local currency appreciates during the arbitrage process and exceeds the arbitrage profit margin, it is equivalent to a trading loss.

The current situation of the Thai baht is obviously not suitable for risk-free arbitrage. Although Thailand has raised its interest rate to 11%, which is twice as high as the United States, but because the forward flooding continues to be low on the Thai baht, even if the interest rate is high

It cannot attract US dollar inflows.

Moreover, the interest rate level is mainly aimed at the liquidity of the domestic market. It is not convenient for a country's central bank to change frequently. Unless it encounters inflation, there will be big economic troubles. Moreover, a rate hike in Thailand not long ago has hit Thailand's finances hard.

If interest rates are raised, the entire financial industry will collapse directly.

Maragari explained to Chawali through translation of professional terms into plain language. After hearing this, Chawali understood that Maragari was tactfully refusing to raise interest rates.

Compared with the political pressure from allies, Chawali cared more about Thailand's economic situation, so he dispelled the idea of ​​hiking interest rates, "Is there any other way?"

Marragher is as warm as if the mouth is filled with bitter gallbladder, full of bitterness. If there were any solutions, he would have proposed it long ago, so how could he wait until now?

"Mr. Chavali, I have no other way."

"I got it, I'll consider it."

Chawali's voice was Bubo, and he hung up the phone after he said that.

Listening to the beeping sound from the microphone, Mara Jianuan suddenly realized that she had ignored a very terrible trading method - foreign exchange swaps.

Foreign exchange swaps are a type of financial swap product. They refer to the two parties to exchange a set of funds with each other within a certain period of time according to pre-arranged exchange rates, interest rates and other conditions to achieve the purpose of avoiding risks.

Generally speaking, foreign exchange swap transactions will not be limited to the exchange of entities of two currencies, but will join credit, that is, release funds through the form of foreign exchange swaps, causing a false prosperity of a large amount of capital influx, and wait until the bubble bursts.

Retrieve the loan again, which will consume a lot of foreign exchange in a short period of time.

Simply put, through false trade, foreign exchange swap transactions with financial institutions outside Thailand, avoiding the supervision of Thai banks, and obtaining huge amounts of funds. The essence is to borrow funds from financial institutions outside Thailand and then exchange them for cost coins.

Put it on the market.

The Thai exchange rate is a peg-to-exchange system. The exchange rate of the Thai baht and the US dollar is very small, so there is no need to consider the value preservation of foreign exchange swaps at all. However, in fact, Thai companies are very keen on swap transactions in the foreign exchange market. The reason is very simple.

The financing cost is lower.

Thai companies borrow USD from foreign financial institutions through foreign exchange swap transactions and exchange them into Thai baht, and then invest in high yield industries such as stock markets and real estate. In this way, they can not only raise funds at lower costs, but also avoid funds.

Inflow regulation.

If Thailand's stock market and real estate continue to flourish, the scale of swap transactions will expand dramatically. However, once income slows down or exchange rate fluctuates sharply, foreign financial institutions will immediately request the loan to be recovered and the transaction will be ended.

The essence of the entire transaction is a lending process, rather than a simple hedging. Therefore, it is very necessary for foreign financial institutions to end the transaction early, and there are generally similar terms in the contract.

According to the operating logic of the financial market, if Thailand raises interest rates again, the expected returns of investment in the stock market and real estate market will be further compressed, and foreign financial institutions will increase their panic about credit and withdraw funds from Thailand at a faster rate.

"If there is a conspiracy here, the currency attack launched by the hedge fund is probably just a smokescreen." Mara Jianuan could not hide her shock and couldn't help but breathe in her mouth, "No wonder there have been so many foreign exchange reserves recently, all of which are well designed.

All are designed!"

Mara Jianuan guessed correctly, indeed everything was designed in advance. Quantum Fund bought a large number of put options as early as March, borrowed a large amount of Thai baht by swaps, and sold Thai baht futures and forwards. Quantum Fund is expected to be determined.

The counterparty will sell out the spot of Thai baht to maintain the value of the derivative contract, which can create pressure on the depreciation of Thai baht by others.

Thailand has actually fallen into a trap. The sky and earth net array has covered it tightly, just waiting to tighten it step by step and slowly harvest it.

A few hours later, Chawali's "consideration" came to an end. The Thai Ministry of Finance held an emergency press conference, and Finance Minister Willawang announced his resignation at the press conference.

As soon as the news came out, it shocked all parties in an instant. Fortunately, the news was released during the market closure, otherwise it would definitely cause severe market fluctuations. However, everyone understands that tomorrow's market will inevitably respond badly to this.

For foreign investors, they need to consider accelerating their withdrawal from Thailand. The Finance Minister has made many public remarks that have swear to defend the Thai baht to the death.

...

Sacrifice: pure colored livestock for sacrifice, livestock for oaths and banquets. It now refers to giving one's life for the cause of justice, and also refers to abandoning or harming the interests of the other party for the benefit of one party.
Chapter completed!