Chapter 1,181, Conspiracy in the Shadows(2/2)
This high economic centralization has led to the government's high restrictions and intervention in economic activities, and some of the interventions have even been included in the law. In recent years, Libya has adopted strict policies, forced export agency system, and prohibited foreign investors from engaging in commercial activities at home.
In the "Global Economic Freedom Index Report" released by the Heritage Foundation, Libya ranked 155th, slightly higher than North Korea and Cuba, becoming one of the most suppressed economies, which fully demonstrates the high centralization of Libya's economy.
The imbalances in the Libyan industrial sector have not been effectively alleviated in the long-term institutional reform and will have unestimated consequences in the future.
Since the oil economy is Libya's dominant industry, the oil and gas sector generates more than 90% of the revenue and about 95% of the export revenue for Libyan nationals, which also makes Libya one of the countries in the world with the most lack of a diversified economy.
However, the oil and gas sector that creates a lot of wealth for the country only has 3% of the country's labor force; 45% of the personnel are trapped in the public sector, and job opportunities have been controlled by the Beni Hilar tribe headed by the Gaddafi family, while the private sector has created only 2% of the wealth for GDP.
It can be seen that Libya's social environment cannot provide corresponding entrepreneurial enthusiasm and hardware facilities. The nationalization of large enterprises and the monopoly of state-owned oil and gas companies still hinders the rapid development of the economy.
The highly single real estate sector makes the Libyan economy appear as a weak position. Even the powerful politics and high per capita GDP under Gaddafi cannot conceal the fragility of its national economy and due to excessive dependence on the oil economy and the nearly extremely single economic system, Libya cannot have the elastic measures and adaptability to the crisis like a country that develops a diversified economy.
Once a global financial crisis breaks out, it will lead to a sharp drop in oil prices and partial withdrawal of foreign oil companies. It will undoubtedly be a heavy blow to Libya, which is highly dependent on oil exports, and even means the collapse of the entire national economy.
The unrecoverable economic structure and the accompanying high unemployment, high inflation rates and political corruption coexist, have become the fuse of social unrest.
These are the economic problems in Libya, and I will talk about the relationship between tribes next.”
Scarlett signaled to switch projections, "Under Gaddafi's dictatorship, the Libyan government not only did not provide fair subsidies to non-tribal people through the oil economy, but instead suppressed ethnic groups in various regions in an unjust way:
The oil-rich areas in the eastern region have always been suppressed and neglected. Because the local government cannot obtain the legality and technical equipment for oil extraction, the central government and foreign companies have completely monopolized local oil extraction without any accident.
In the eyes of the people of Cyrenica in the east, Gaddafi's dictatorship was to plunder the eastern oil and nourish itself.
Oil extraction brings friction and bottlenecks caused by environmental damage and negotiation, but the government refuses to provide more benefits and public services to the region. In the unintelligent Libyan society, a region has insufficient returns but has to bear the cost of mining. In addition, the oil economy will inspire people's capital accumulation psychology, and when this psychology causes a gap between reality, it will become an irreconcilable contradiction between the east and west regions.
Based on the awareness of fair development and equal distribution of oil economic benefits, once the eastern region believes that civil war can obtain better resource allocation, it will fight for it, which greatly increases the possibility of civil war breaking out.
32% of Libyan oil is sold to Italy, about 425,000 barrels per day, 14% is sold to Germany, about 178,000 barrels per day, and 10% is sold to France, about 133,000 barrels per day, and France, Switzerland, Ireland and Austria import more than 15% of crude oil from Libya.
This external oil economy links the development of the north and the south. In fact, European countries become hostages to oil exporters. For European countries that are highly dependent on imports of oil, shortage of energy supply will seriously hit their own economic growth and cause financial and economic difficulties.
Especially under the influence of a possible financial crisis, once Libya's relations with various oil importers deteriorate, European countries will feel extremely insecurity.
Libyan oil companies are fully nationalized, and share contracts are adopted for oil companies entering abroad. Exploration investment is entirely borne by the contractor. Once oil and gas commercially develop, the Libyan government will enter the share, with the profits as high as 80%, which means that huge profits will not be left to oil companies."
Scarlett signaled to turn off the projector, and she returned to her seat to sit down, "Suppose a civil war broke out in Libya, European countries, including the United States, will definitely conduct 'humanitarian' military intervention in Libya, and the most active countries will be..."
Scarlett kept it a secret and did not say the country's name, but just glanced at everyone attending the meeting.
Nazareno said: "France has 32 French companies operating in Libya, and is concentrated in the energy field and has billions of dollars in investment. These companies have been under the exploitation of foreign companies by the Gaddafi government for a long time. For France, ousting Gaddafi and replacing a new force will undoubtedly become the biggest beneficiary."
Scarlett: "There is no doubt that Gaddafi's international image is not good. Once the situation in Libya is turbulent, he will not win much international support. Perhaps, Russia will provide some assistance. If I were the leader of the anti-government armed forces, I would promise European and American countries that once the revolution is successful, the oil share contract will be renegotiated."
"After we leave, they will build schools and hospitals for you, and will raise your wages, not because they find their conscience, nor because they become good people, but because we have been here." Yevgeni said, "Guevara is a revolutionary who I respect very much. I believe that Benghazi is a hot land like Rosario, where a revolutionary will be born, who will fight for oil freedom."
Yucheved: "Are we waiting or looking for target support?"
Yevgeny: "Scarlett, do you think we need to come out and promote the situation in Libya in person?"
Scarlett denies, "No, the oil consortium has greater interests. We just need to make arrangements, wait, and then share the interests."
Nazareno: "I agree."
Yevgeny: "Ok, the details will be discussed in the next meeting."
...
On the side of Nan Youqiong, he is attending a seminar on housing price trends jointly held by the Finance and Real Estate Group to study the possible trends of US housing prices in the next few years.
Due to the existence of property taxes and laws not very friendly to landlords in some states, the threshold for hoarding and speculating in the United States is relatively high, and there is no considerable increase. The income from speculation in real estate will not be too high and will not be a good choice for investment.
However, as New Century Financial Company filed for bankruptcy protection, news that two flagship hedge funds related to mortgages, including New Century Financial Company, the fifth largest brokerage firm and the second largest mortgage bond underwriter, have suffered huge losses in private. The plummeting housing prices has become a foregone conclusion. At this time, it is a politically correct approach and a practice with unlimited profit probability.
What we need to discuss and analyze now is whether this kind of investment can bring huge returns and whether it is worth the large investment of the Nanshi.
After two thousand years, Nan's financial investment strategy has been adjusted. Most of its own funds are invested in fixed-income financial products such as treasury bonds and bonds, and only seeking to protect principal and interest to offset the currency depreciation caused by inflation.
Only a small part of the funds will be invested in high-risk and high-yield financial products. The goal is to make a big profit with a small profit. Moreover, this area is mainly to borrow chickens to lay eggs, Scarlett Fund, py securities and other institutions to raise external funds, and earn profit sharing and management expenses.
There are many other investment models, combining various high, medium and low-risk investments, and reasonably matching funds. We do not seek explosive growth in the Nanshi's capital pool, but only seek stable growth.
At the Nan family, as long as you do not take any gambles and as long as the world's financial structure does not undergo earth-shaking changes, it is unlikely that it will cause major losses that will damage the body, and all investments will be carried out within a controllable range.
Nan Youqiong’s greatest responsibility is to continue to consolidate the foundation of the Nan family, and under this premise, he will develop various layouts, investment or speculation. He must have great abilities, but his ambitions cannot be too great. He must be willing to act as a good fighter who has no outstanding military achievements.
The first thing he wants to do is to make a stable investment. He does not want to make a few investments, but only wants to recover the capital and profit smoothly, and then repeat and accumulate bit by bit.
Speculation of hundreds of billions and billions can be played with. If you make a profit, you will make a profit. If you lose money, you will be more conservative next time.
Chapter completed!