Chapter 197, Liu economist Zhen
"You've finished watching "Childhood"?"
After dinner, Liu Zhen washed the dishes and took a copy of "Pride and Prejudice" and sat next to Nanyi.
"I've finished reading."
"Then why don't you read "In the World"?" Liu Zhen pointed to the book "Li Senke" written by Gao Hansheng in Nanyi's hand. "What's so good about this? Didn't Li Senke be completely denied?"
"Everyone has his strengths and weaknesses. If he cannot be said to be denied, his strengths will be erased. At least he can learn the theory of increasing grain yield."
"What to learn? Learn from him holding the Manifesto in one hand and the beaker in the other, muttering the words: Ula, Ula, I order you [wheat] to produce 100,000 kilograms per mu in the name of revolution?"
"Don't talk nonsense, Li Senko proposed the concept of lenticulation and established the theory of stage development; he also had unique insights in genetics and founded the Michulin School in genetics.
In agricultural production, many new technologies have been invented and promoted, and yield and quality have been improved.
During World War II, he also studied potatoes and invented the use of the top buds as seed potatoes and the rest for consumption, which alleviated the food tension.
In terms of biological evolution, he also put forward a new insight on species formation.
Judging from the politics of separation, Li Senko can be regarded as a veritable agricultural expert and a great scientist.”
"Oh, I don't really understand. I'm born without the genes to farm."
"It's okay, just study your finances. Have you made money by your national policy trust?"
"Don't you ask about my job?"
"I didn't ask, I just asked casually. If you can say it, you can say it. If you can't say it, don't say it."
"I made money, but I still have a lot of money."
"oh."
Nan Yi responded to a sentence and his attention was sinking into the book again.
Liu Zhen twisted his body, changed his sitting position, naturally leaned his head on Nan Yi's shoulder, holding the book in his hand and focusing on reading.
After reading the book for an hour, the two of them closed the pages at the same time.
"Can your household registration be moved?"
"Can you move to Wenchangwei?"
"Yes, my household registration is about to be moved away, and it's too inconvenient to walk now."
"Oh, I'll go to the unit tomorrow to ask." Liu Zhen moved his body, leaned against Nan Yi's arms, and looked up at him, "Nan Yi, are you leaving again?"
"I can stay for a few more days."
"I haven't seen you for a few years. No, I want to quit my job and follow you."
"It's not time yet, you can go to your class quietly."
"It's OK, but you have to come to the capital to see me more." Liu Zhen looked at Nan Yi with anticipation.
"I try my best to find two chefs in two restaurants. Without a good chef, I can't support a restaurant."
"Why, aren't the two restaurants the props you used to dig a hole?"
"What family, I dare to use two restaurants as props. I have to use them as props and make money by pointing at them. So, the chef is particularly important."
"Then where do you look for it? A good cook doesn't have to worry about food. He has a high status in the unit and can still bring some leftovers to go home. With medical insurance and pension, what price do you have to pay to dig?"
"Ha, what are the conditions? Let me tell you, if you want to dig, you will definitely dig Forty Rou to be a master of the strong R&F. He will be considered to be retired at the age of 60, and he can live to ninety, so he can get a pension of thirty years.
Nothing is thirty years. I will calculate it directly for forty years, not a few dozen a month. It is 200 forty years. Forty years, it is 96,000. If he comes to work, I will send it to him monthly and give it clearance in five years."
"You are solving their worries, but what if they are so jealous of the business? Human desires are endless."
"You know everything, how can I not know?
I just had the conditions to poach people. I worked for a year or two, let alone increased salaries, and dividends would be paid.
Not only did he get dividends when he was working, but if he could bring a few apprentices out, as long as the apprentices could stand alone and teach one apprentice, he could get a dividend, and a few apprentices could get a dividend."
"According to what you mean, isn't this going to do a big deal? Didn't you say you're not interested in the catering industry?"
"I've said it? Why don't I remember it?"
"I said that in 1978, I was in a state-owned restaurant behind the school."
"Oh, you've misunderstood. I'm not interested in the catering industry, I'm not interested in opening ordinary restaurants, or high-end catering.
The restaurant I want to open should focus on green, healthy and novel concepts. What other people can eat, what I am better, what other people can’t eat, what I can eat.
Of course, I am not talking about strange wild game, but delicacies.”
"I understand, the restaurant will still provide supporting facilities for the agricultural plan." Liu Zhen nodded and said.
"It's almost the same, it's one of the plans."
"Vision?"
"It won't be too far away. In five or six years, we will be ready to implement it. Reagan, a band of countries, is implementing loose fiscal policies, and Fed Chairman Paul is implementing a severe anti-inflation monetary policy, which will further strengthen the dollar.
The exports of goods from countries will naturally be impacted, and the White House will definitely face strong demands from Congress to implement trade restrictions.
Once the US dollar is strong, several European countries and Japanese countries will definitely take corresponding measures to cope with the rise of foreign exchange market speculation and trade protectionism, and several countries will definitely reach a consensus on exchange rate coordination.
I won’t have long to think about it, and several countries will sit down and sign exchange rate agreements.”
"I know this. I have been studying the future trend of international currency exchange rates recently. According to my analysis, the short-distance future of Japanese yen and Mark will definitely appreciate, while the Korean won will depreciate.
In a fair deal, the crocodiles in Washington and Wall Street must have ill-intentioned slander.
Once the exchange rate agreement is signed, the Japanese economy will definitely cause turmoil, and I am asking a question mark in Germany.”
"Why do you think the Japanese economy will be turbulent, but Germany is asking a question mark?"
"Test me?" Liu Zhen said with a smile on his face.
"Step half-examination and half-seeking advice."
"Then I'll talk about it." Liu Zhen corrected himself, "Since last year, Japan finally overcomes the negative impact of the second oil crisis, and the economic growth rate has rebounded slightly.
However, the domestic cpi [consumer price index] in Japan is relatively stable, with annual price growth basically remaining within 2%, with medium-speed growth and stable prices.
The domestic economy of Japan can be said to be quite prosperous, and the people's happiness index can be said to be higher than that of the whole country.
The surplus of current account income and expenditure of Japanese funds has risen slightly in recent years, and the proportion of surplus in GDP has increased from 2.2% to 3.1%.
The huge trade surplus is not only accused by trading partners, but it is not a good thing for the Japanese themselves. This may lead to blockades and retaliation from other countries and trigger a threat of trade protectionism.
Because of this consideration, Japanese people urgently need Japanese yen to appreciate.
The appreciation of the Japanese yen will affect the Japanese trade surplus in the short term and may even have a deficit. However, as long as the subsequent strategies are implemented properly, the Japanese can survive this crisis smoothly.
Strategy is very important, but I estimate that the most appropriate strategy cannot be implemented. This is determined by the Japanese system. The biggest failure of the Japanese system is the bureaucratic barrier of its own system.
I expect that on the demand side, the Japanese will not adopt the best combination of fiscal and monetary policy; on the support side, the structural reform measures will not be promoted.
Because this will harm the interests of vested interests, and who are the vested interests of Japanese? Nan Yi, do you know?"
"Yeah, you keep going."
"The appreciation of Japanese yen will affect exports. On the one hand, Japanese capital will expand globally, or they will take advantage of the valuable Japanese yen to make global capital allocation;
On the one hand, Japan will definitely undergo economic structural adjustments in China. I guess domestic demand will be expanded by improving social capital, expanding consumption, adjusting taxes accordingly, opening portals, etc.
But under the promotion of those who are interested, Japan will definitely go astray in the structural reform of expanding domestic demand. I estimate that they will focus on finance and continuously increase the money supply to expand domestic demand.
The stock and real estate markets in Japan will usher in unprecedented rapid growth, which means the formation of an economic bubble.
The money supply increases, but these currencies will not flow into equipment investment, iterate, and will not be used for personal consumption in Japan;
The value-added by Japanese yen will cause more Japanese people to travel abroad, and many Japanese people will go abroad to attack various luxury goods, buying and buying.
Currency will flow into the asset market in large quantities, which will lead to a sharp expansion of asset prices. The prices of stock and real estate markets I mentioned earlier will expand sharply.
Land prices in Japan, especially Tokyo, will rise rapidly.
Nanyi, you have actually made a prediction about this, right? Otherwise, if your funds are so tight, you will still let a large amount of funds stay in Tokyo. These funds are going to flow into real estate, right?"
Nan Yi nodded and said, "Yes, I have foreseen that the stock and property prices of Japanese stocks will rise sharply. If you stay in Tokyo, you will use them to buy land and property.
As you said, in order to stimulate domestic demand, Japanese funds will definitely relax monetary policy, and consumer loans and home purchase loans may relax to an unbelievable level.
Once this conjecture comes true, the land and property worth 200 million US dollars can be increased to 20 billion, or even 100 billion US dollars through snowballing or single-cell fission."
"It is unlikely that hundreds of billions of dollars can be withdrawn successfully. You may be caught as a scapegoat or kill a chicken to warn monkeys."
"I know, that's why I made a lot of arrangements, including the Ikeda Company's daily engraving. Moreover, the funds I grab from the Japanese in the future will not be withdrawn, but will be transferred out of the Japanese in the form of investment.
Of course, most of the funds will be used to invest in Japan. Ikeda Club is a socially responsible company and will take it as its responsibility to save the Japan economy."
"Hehe, do you want to work hard in Japan?"
“There are many good small businesses in Japan, although they are not big, but in a smaller field, they are among the best, and I call them stealth champions.
I am very interested in investing in these companies.
Chapter completed!