Chapter 193: Smith Capital with a loss of two billion(2/3)
The neon-speaking subordinate ended the call.
Richard Fuld immediately said impatiently: "How is it? Is there any definite news?"
The subordinate who spoke neon words respectfully replied:
"According to our news channels there."
"Our informant in Neon Central Bank said that it will be done within a short period of time."
"Subject to pressure from the Federal Reserve and the White House, they will not cut interest rates immediately like other countries' currencies."
After hearing the news, Richard Fuld's face suddenly showed an expression of ecstasy.
Already said before.
After the Federal Reserve made the decision to cut interest rates.
Most countries in the world will follow suit and cut interest rates.
In this way, the US dollar depreciates, and others depreciate more, which is reflected in the US dollar. On the contrary, the US dollar appreciates, and the US dollar index continues to rise.
But in essence, when the Fed cuts interest rates, the dollar still depreciates.
What's more, there are still a few days of reaction time, during which the dollar will definitely depreciate.
Richard Fuld, an informant from Lehman Brothers on the Neon side.
After learning the news that this time the Neon Central Bank was forced not to follow the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.
The bulldog of Wall Street suddenly beamed with joy.
Because as long as Neon doesn’t follow the Fed in cutting interest rates.
That means that the Japanese yen will continue to maintain its current exchange rate strength.
The dollar depreciated, the yen maintained.
This is completely opposite to the previous three-year bull market, which is conducive to the continued shorting of USD/JPY.
Richard Fuld still cannot fully trust this news channel.
This kind of transaction involving tens or tens of billions of dollars requires, of course, the more accurate the intelligence, the better.
Wall Street Bulldog took a few more hours.
After this news was confirmed through many channels and in many aspects.
Determine why Neon is threatened by the White House.
Neon really will not cut interest rates along with the US dollar this time.
After truly confirming that this news is true.
In the trading department, Richard Fuld decisively made the decision to short USD/JPY.
In one fell swoop, he placed a short position of more than 30,000 USD/JPY lots.
It increased to more than 80,000 lots.
Not only Lehman Brothers got the news that Neon would not cut interest rates this time.
Other well-informed Wall Street investment banks also got the news.
These people make the same judgments as Richard Fuld.
The U.S. dollar cuts interest rates, but the Japanese yen does not follow suit.
That is bullish for JPY/USD and the yen will appreciate.
In turn, it is negative for USD/JPY, and the USD will depreciate.
Some people may think that USD/JPY and JPY/USD are not the same?
Aren't they just the exchange of two currencies?
Between normal currency exchanges, they are indeed the same.
But in the international foreign exchange futures market.
USD/JPY is USD/JPY.
JPY/USD is JPY/USD.
They are two different currency exchanges.
Even though they generally appear in pairs in the foreign exchange market.
USD/JPY is based on the US dollar.
Conversely, JPY/USD is based on the Japanese yen.
Let’s put it this way, USD/JPY 107.500 means that one U.S. dollar can be exchanged for 107.5 U.S. dollars.
If it goes short and becomes 107.300, one dollar can only be exchanged for 107.3 yen.
One U.S. dollar can be exchanged for fewer Japanese yen, so the U.S. dollar depreciates and USD/JPY goes short.
If 107.500 is reversed, it becomes 107.600.
That is, one dollar can be exchanged for more yen.
For the US dollar, the US dollar appreciates and the Japanese yen depreciates.
USD/JPY, which is based on the U.S. dollar, naturally goes long.
At this time, the Neon Central Bank was pressured by the United States not to cut interest rates, but the United States itself cut interest rates.
That is, the dollar depreciates and there are fewer yen available for exchange.
This is reflected in the current fierce battle between bulls and bears on the USD/JPY currency pair.
That is to say, USD/JPY will continue to go short normally.
It will remain short until the U.S. deadline for neon not to cut interest rates ends, and only after neon starts to cut interest rates will it be possible to go long again.
This is undoubtedly a very favorable condition for Wall Street investment banks that are short the yen.
This is why Stanley O'Neal and others did it before.
They will seriously doubt the reason why Abel colluded with the White House.
This situation will not only be beneficial to strengthening the U.S. economy.
There is no doubt that it will also have huge benefits for Abel who was shorting USD/JPY at that time!
It is precisely because Abel benefited the most at that time that Wall Street investment banks doubted him.
Collusion with the White House.
But now
Not only Goldman Sachs has discovered that Smith Capital has gone from idle to long, and started to go long USD/JPY out of a bad idea.
Goldman Sachs found out, but Paulson chose not to leave because of personal reasons.
But other Wall Street investment banks, after confirming these two pieces of news.
They won't be polite.
Richard Fuld of Lehman Brothers placed 50,000 new short positions at once.
Stanley O'Neill of Merrill Lynch was not polite, and also confirmed these two pieces of news.
The most powerful black man on Wall Street even directly asked Merrill Lynch to place a short order of 100,000 lots.
By the afternoon of January 4th, the international foreign exchange market.
There are hundreds of thousands of empty orders in USD/JPY.
The long-term long position that had been accumulated for more than two years was instantly flattened.
USD/JPY maintained the exchange rate around 106.100 for a day, then moved downward again, falling below 106.
In the Smith Building.
Traders at Smith Capital.
They were a little desperate, looking at Smith Capital's accounts.
& With tens of thousands of long USD/JPY orders, the accumulated floating losses exceeded US$1 billion.
If it weren't for the fact that Smith Capital's main fund provider this time was Pacific Commercial Bank, Abel's own bank.
The bank intermediaries are losing so much.
I will definitely recommend Smith Capital to close the position, or ask Smith Capital to increase the margin.
But this kind of loss is already scary.
The total margin was only US$3 billion, and a third of it was lost.
It is not far away from the forced liquidation line, that is, the liquidation.
In response, David Mellon had to find Abel himself.
To be continued...