Chapter 386 The fuse that controls destiny

After taking a dip in the swimming pool, Abel felt satisfied.

In the sunny dining room of the villa, Abel began to have breakfast.

While having breakfast, I took a look at today's newspaper.

[...Affected by a series of macroeconomic data, New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures showed a volatile trend.]

[...The Ministry of Labor announced early this morning that the unemployment rate in December last year reached 7.2%, a new high since 1995]

[…In 2001, 2.6 million people lost their jobs, setting a new record since 1945.]

[...The economic recession will reduce demand for commodities and curb inflation. Suppressed by this news, gold futures fell to $298.5 per ounce in early trading.]

Abel, who was wearing a white T-shirt and beach shorts, was holding a cup of iced coffee and sipping lightly while looking at the recent economic data and news in various aspects of the United States presented in the newspaper.

After finishing his iced coffee, he put down the newspaper and looked up through the etched window lattice in the glass sunny restaurant.

He saw Kate, who was wearing a wide white dress, already up and lying under a sun umbrella next to the outdoor swimming pool, enjoying her leisure time.

Snap——

Abel snapped his fingers, and the housekeeper came up with the maids.

Take away the newspapers, the dregs of his breakfast, coffee cups, etc. and clean them up.

As soon as the housekeeper and the maid exited, Alan Baker, two other members of the Smith Intelligence Group, and the Smith family butler David Jones appeared.

"Good morning everyone."

Abel smiled and greeted them.

His subordinates also responded quickly and started working.

Mainly Allen is reporting, reading some Smith Think Group, sorting out, collecting, revising and designing various business intelligence, economic policies, and some suggestions for various companies under Abel.

This is also what Abel does most of the morning - the breakfast meeting.

Usually he would go out after finishing these things.

When he goes out, he usually follows the itinerary laid out for him by the Smith Intelligence Group.

Of course, the boss has the biggest opinion in the world.

No matter how good or important the itinerary listed by Smith Think Group is.

None of them are as important as Abel's opinion or idea.

Abel often suddenly changes his itinerary and does things outside of the itinerary according to his preferences and ideas.

If this happens, Smith Intelligence Group will naturally have no choice but to accommodate its boss.

As quickly as possible, we designed new itineraries and suggestions for Abel in a short period of time.

This is what Smith Think Group does.

This is also the main reason why this consulting company has more and more people and a larger scale.

The more elites you collect, the more manpower you will have.

Abel's "cabinet, military department, and attendant's room" can meet Abel's needs in all aspects from work to entertainment and hobbies, from entertainment and hobbies to family life.

In front of the table.

Abel squinted his eyes slightly due to the sun, and next to him was Alan who was reading business intelligence.

"Faced with Bush's upcoming massive economic stimulus package, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office predicts that the budget deficit will reach $400 billion in the fiscal quarter ending March 30."

"The market is worried that the Federal Reserve may be forced to "pay" for the huge fiscal deficit that has arrived so early. The U.S. dollar is facing huge depreciation pressure. The U.S. dollar exchange rate rose sharply on the 7th, which played a supporting role in the trend of gold futures."

"Jorgan Chase Bank has also significantly raised its forecast for international gold prices, believing that as the US dollar continues to weaken, gold prices will rise further. In the first quarter of this year, it is expected to rise to US$330 per ounce, higher than its previous forecast of US$315.

Dollar……"

“There has always been an inverse relationship between the price of gold and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar. We believe that the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of developed economies will continue to decline, and the exchange rate against currencies of emerging economies will also generally decline in the second half of this year.

Some investors will definitely turn to Huang..."

Although Allen was reading the information, he was also always paying attention to his boss's expression.

When I saw a slight change in my boss's expression.

He stopped immediately, and sure enough, Allen heard Abel say:

"It's more than 330 US dollars. By the end of this year, it will definitely exceed 500 US dollars."

"Inform David and Jed to ask New York and London to start buying international spot gold. We will go long."

Another member of the intelligence group next to Allen immediately nodded in agreement and took a note to write down the request.

At this moment, Abel's personal phone on the table rang.

He picked it up and looked at it and found that it was a call from the contact "George".

Abel answered immediately and chatted with the other party for a few words with a smile.

A few minutes later, Allen and the others saw Abel, smiling and putting down his cell phone, his expressions looking very happy.

Then the boss said to them: "Great deal, it's coming. Oh, the American economy is going to be great again—until another financial crisis comes!"

The reason Abel was in such a good mood was because of the phone call from the white house just now.

George told Abel something through some secret codes agreed upon by both parties not long ago.

He informed Abel that the Federal Reserve, following the practices of the Neon Central Bank, would soon announce a new economic policy in the United States.

This strategy is called "adaptive strategy" and has its own English word.

The meaning of the word seems ambiguous, but in later generations, the "adaptive policy" promoted by the Federal Reserve under George's term this year will be regarded as the earliest attempt at quantitative easing in U.S. history.

Quantitative easing mainly refers to an intervention method in which a country's central bank, after implementing a zero interest rate or near-zero interest rate policy, purchases medium and long-term bonds such as treasury bonds to increase the base money supply and inject a large amount of liquidity into the market.

It is mainly used to encourage spending and borrowing, and is also briefly described as indirectly printing more money.

Compared with the simple and crude way of turning on the printing press, this method is gentler, but it is essentially the same.

This is a powerful medicine for a country's economy.

To put it simply, in the future, a large amount of U.S. dollars will be injected into the global capital market at a slower pace.

If the US dollar overflows the dam of the United States, it will flood the whole world, and global inflation will occur as a result.

However, the Fed has just tried it, and in the early days it was just a splash of tens of billions of dollars. When it tastes the benefits, and happens to encounter a financial crisis, it will frantically release money.

But now, the upcoming adaptive policies also indicate that the era of the great American real estate boom that occurred during George's term is about to come.

Most of the waves of water released by the Federal Reserve have gone to U.S. real estate.

The floods are flooding in, and real estate in the United States will begin to boom.

Does it look familiar?

That’s right, a certain country copied this trick from the United States.

But later this country discovered that this method was very effective in the United States. In its own country, the effect was actually better.

Compared to Americans, people in this country, which believes in returning fallen leaves to their roots, value their houses more.

After that, because this trick of drinking doves to quench thirst was really effective in the early stage, the economy took off as soon as it was used, and eventually path dependence was formed.

Relying on relying on it, it becomes what happens next.

Under quantitative easing, the U.S. dollar falls, house prices rise, gold rises, and another thing also rises.

Those are junk bonds, and they are starting to become valuable.

Lehman Brothers, one of the five major investment banks, relied on specializing in junk bonds. Within a few years, it crushed several other investment banks in terms of performance and profitability and became the leader among investment banks.

Then came the subprime mortgage crisis. In addition to the Great Depression, which was the foreshadowing of World War II, the second most terrifying financial crisis appeared. Alas, the giant Lehman collapsed.

At this time, the good plan Abel said appeared.

It refers to the fact that the Federal Reserve has finally begun to try to carry out quantitative easing.

Firstly, he is already good at futures and so on, and he has been laying the groundwork in the real estate market since the year before last.

The worldwide futures fluctuations caused by quantitative easing meant that for the talented Abel, new withdrawal opportunities emerged crazily.

Secondly, the emergence of this "adaptive strategy" is blowing the clarion call for the subprime mortgage crisis.

The subprime mortgage crisis a few years later has always been regarded by Abel as a necessary condition for him to achieve all his ultimate goals.

More than anyone else, he longs for the subprime mortgage crisis to come sooner.

Now that the trumpet finally sounded, Abel knew it and naturally felt happy.

The boss, Allen, who looked very excited, didn't know the reason, but they all followed Abel's instructions and started to go long in gold and short in the U.S. dollar.

This concludes the breakfast meeting.

Abel, who went to Los Angeles yesterday and spent a day and night playing, also started to get busy with business on the West Coast.

For him, the first most important thing here is related to little Laura.
To be continued...