The next day.

Nan Yi was studying Thailand's data in his study. In the evening, he asked Ma Shimin to come to Fang's Manor.

"Simon, what do you think of Thailand's foreign exchange policy?"

Ma Shimin thought for a moment and said: "Thailand's 11 years from 1974 to 1985, the Thai baht that was eyeing the US dollar depreciated with the US dollar, resulting in rapid growth in exports. During this period, Thailand's GDP growth rate was close to 10%.

During this period, the proportion of manufacturing exports in total exports increased from 36% to 81%, the proportion of manufacturing industries in GDP increased from 22% to 29%, the proportion of agricultural exports fell from 47% to 13%, and the proportion of agricultural output value in GDP decreased from 21% to 11%. Industrial growth and Thailand became rich.

However, Thailand has always been very vigilant about foreign financial institutions and has still implemented a strict foreign exchange management system until the end of the 1980s.

All this changed after entering the 1990s. Thailand's financial policies were changed to allow foreign financial institutions to enter and exit Thailand freely without the need for central bank supervision.

The reason is that the Thai government has taken a fancy to the status of Kazuki Financial Port and wants to take advantage of the opportunity of Kazuki's disintegration to compete with Kazuki and replace Kazuki as the financial center in Southeast Asia and even the entire Asia.

Once the free financial policy was promulgated, a large amount of overseas funds poured into Thailand, and the entire Thailand financial market became prosperous. The overseas funds invested in the Thai stock market this year may have been nearly 3 billion US dollars. Therefore, the Thai stock index rose very quickly this year."

Ma Shimin paused and said, "According to the current situation, the Thai government should soon allow foreign banks to set up branches in Thailand to achieve real financial liberalization. In fact, what will Thailand do next can be found in the process of Xiangshu going to the financial port."

Nan Yi picked up a hawaiian nut from the table, chewed it while thinking, and waited until the kernel was chewed, then he said: "Simon, if the US dollar appreciates next year or the year after, what changes will happen to Thailand's economy."

Nanyi's problem is a bit big. Ma Shimin thought for more than 20 minutes before speaking: "When Thailand realizes financial liberalization and a large amount of overseas funds enter the Thai stock market. When the stock market reaches its peak, it can no longer accommodate too much funds, or when the investment risk is already very high, overseas funds will be transferred to the real estate industry.

With the background of Thailand's economy still on a sharp rise, Thailand's real estate industry is very likely to become hot, housing prices soar, and investing in real estate will become an investment direction with a seemingly high return rate.

Bank credit is expanding rapidly, and a large amount of funds flow not to efficient and high value-added production enterprises, but to high-risk real estate and stock markets.

These can also be confirmed from the development of Xianghu. The reason why Xianghu's industrial field declined is due to the Downing Street and the real estate and stock markets absorbed most of the funds.

What will happen after real estate becomes hot and housing prices soar. The history of the United States, Japan, and Kazuki has already written the answer there.

Can the Thai government do better than these three places?

I don't think it's possible that Thailand's real estate industry will soon go from real prosperity to virtual prosperity, and it will bubble in less than a few years, the quality of banks' loans will decline, and the non-performing asset ratios of various banks will rise rapidly.

If the US dollar appreciates at this node, which in turn drives the appreciation of the Thai baht, it will lead to a sharp drop in Thailand's exports and enter a trade deficit from the trade surplus.

Thailand is a member of the ASEAN Free Trade Zone, and Thailand is still actively joining WTO. Perhaps in less than a year or two, Thailand will become a member of WTO. At that time, Thailand will need to fulfill the obligations undertaken by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the ASEAN Free Trade Zone Agreement and reduce import tariffs.

Tariffs have been reduced, a large amount of foreign goods flowing into Thailand, further exacerbating the trade deficit, and Thailand's economy has begun to decline.

When overseas funds see the investment risks in Thailand, funds will withdraw from Thailand in large quantities, stock indexes fall, housing prices plummet, and Thai economy will collapse."

"Then what do you think the Thai government will do when this situation occurs?" Nan Yi asked.

"The most direct way to attract foreign investment is to increase interest rates. I believe that by then the Thai government will raise interest rates to a very high level, perhaps the highest in Asia.

When interest rates increase, the withdrawal of foreign capital will be slowed down to a certain extent. The stock market and the real estate market can still maintain a financial force that will not collapse, and the time when the bubble is burst will be delayed.

However, the increase in interest rates will hit Thailand's production-oriented enterprises fatal. Companies that need funds dare not borrow domestically due to high interest rates, so they can only go abroad to find foreign banks. This will lead to a rapid rise in Thailand's foreign debt and a rapid decline in foreign exchange reserves. The originally very stable exchange rate system has begun to shake.

Adam, what will happen next? I don’t need to say in detail. Last year, Scarlett Fund’s shadow fund, py securities, Miss Private, and Snow Mountain Trust just made a lot of profits through the exchange rate.”

Nan Yi nodded and said, "You know I am not very good at financial speculation. I rarely care about Nan's financial speculation strategy and rarely express my own opinions. Therefore, exchange rate is not the focus of our discussion today.

What I want to discuss with you is loans. Nanguo Bank Group has launched a low-interest, medium- and long-term lending plan for high-quality companies in Thailand. Whether they borrow Thai baht or US dollars, they must pay back the US dollar when the loan expires."

“Annexed high-quality enterprises in Thailand?”

"Yes, the Thai branch of Queen Mother Fruit Industry went independently, based in Thailand, annexed high-quality Thai enterprises, and transformed into an agricultural, food and beverage business, covering finance, securities, tourism, real estate, and Nanfo Group."

"Adam, if this plan is to be carried out, one needs to ensure the appreciation of the US dollar, and two needs to pull several banks as allies. Only our Nanguo Bank Group is too weak, and Thailand is prone to defaulting."

"The appreciation of the US dollar is inevitable. The two-pole confrontation is already in the past. The next one that can shake the dominance of the US dollar is the euro. Of course, the United States needs to do something against the upcoming euro.

In addition, in the United States, the credit scores of subprime mortgage borrowers are showing a downward trend year by year, especially floating-rate subprime mortgage loans. Simon and Wall Street junk bonds packaged with subprime mortgages need to be taken over, otherwise there is a risk of rapid collapse.

It is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. We will definitely know this time point in advance."

"Ok, Adam, is this plan led by the South Bank Group?" Ma Shimin asked.

"Of course, Queen Mother Fruit Industry cannot provide such a large amount of funds. I will go to the Information Policy Committee tomorrow to discuss this idea and form a complete feasible plan as soon as possible."

In the following days, information about the US economy, the Federal Reserve, subprime mortgage, the euro, Thailand's current economic situation, current economic strategies, leadership governance style and other information were summarized on the Intelligence and Policy Committee.

The strategy team deduces the economic trend of Thailand and ponders the details of the plan - what should be done when the situation occurs; if the situation is not as good as expected and instead develops in a bad direction, how should we reduce losses, etc.

After the big framework was decided, the plan also had a code name "Blessed by Buddha".

A few days later, Nan Yi appeared in Chonghua Temple in Shenqing, with Chen Zongqing in front, Nan Yi, Chen Yuxiu, Duan Bugao behind, and several people were in the hall, holding incense in their hands to worship Buddha statues.

Zhang Dongwei found it and had turned into a corpse. He was found in a remote wilderness near the airport. His mouth and nose were sealed with tape, his neck was tied with ropes, and his hands and feet were tied. He was like an unborn baby in his womb. He suffered a heavy blow to the back of his head, but the real cause of death was suffocation.

When it was found, 2.2 million yuan in cash and Zhang Dongwei's private car Crown jzs133 disappeared.

Chen Zongqing inserted the incense into the incense burner, turned around, looked at Chen Yuxiu and said, "Is Zhang Dongwei's wife better?"

"It has been stable and can be discharged from the hospital today."

Chen Zongqing said to Nan Yi again: "Nan Yi, what should we do?"

"Help the police to investigate the murderer. If you have one, don't let them run away. I want them to bury Zhang Dongwei. Also, find a way to go out and ask who is eating the airport line.

In the middle of the night, I drove out of the airport and brought 2.2 million yuan in the car. Under what circumstances, who could let Zhang Dongwei park?"

Duan Bugao: "Preliminary inspection."

Chen Yuxiu: "Woman, Zhang Dongwei is good at everything, he is a little lustful. Even if he is not negotiating business, he will often go to and from entertainment venues."

"Luxury... go out and talk." The group left the temple, and Nan Yicai continued: "For the criminals, lustful targets are easy to attack. Jiao Po's clothes are exposed, and when he stops on the side of the road, he can easily stop the car. Once the car stops, he can't help himself. "

As he said that, Nan Yi sighed, "2.2 million, there is too much money. If there are not many gangsters, one ounce is enough to become a regular person. If they don't make any more mistakes, it will be difficult to find them. Contact the dealer in Bincheng and ask him the source of the money. I hope the money has its characteristics."

Chen Yuxiu said: "The police have asked, the money is the usual business payment, which is saved little by little. The dealer did not mark it, but he remembered that there were reactionary remarks on it."

"It doesn't work much. Although the money is not much, it can be seen outside, and it is not directed." Nan Yi shook his head, "Sponsored the police to handle the matter. Alas, do your best and leave it to fate. The one who left needs to explain it to him, and the unknown must explain it to him. Does Zhang Dongwei have children?"

"His wife has one in her belly."

"Go to the company and study how to compensate."

Back at Erdong Electronics, Duan Bugao adjusted Zhang Dongwei's performance appraisal, and several people measured Zhang Dongwei's contribution to the company together, and finally set a humanitarian compensation standard of 600,000 yuan.

It can only be compensation, not compensation. Compensation is not an obligation. If you want to give it, you can give it if you don’t want to give it. If you don’t want to give it, you will not give it. The compensation will be different. If you don’t want to give it, you have to give it. Once you say it is compensation, you are afraid that later people will follow suit.

After leaving Erdong Electronics, Nanyi and Chen Zongqing went to a restaurant in Nanshan to make a food stall for Zuige.

In the open air, sit along the street.

Chen Zongqing took out a bottle of Hai Dabai and put it on the table, saying, "You try the new wine."

Nan Yi picked up the wine bottle and looked at it and said, "The bottle needs to be modified and it must be easily put in the pocket. The front and back pockets of the jeans must be able to hold it."

As he said that, he opened the lid, put it in front of his nose and smelled it. Then he picked up two cups from the table, put them on the table, poured two and a half cups, picked up the cups, took a sip, put them in his mouth and felt the taste of the wine. He swallowed it until his taste buds fully understood.

"It's okay to smell the fragrance and the taste is acceptable. However, I don't know how to drink it in plain sight and can't count it. Let Hex Wine do a taste test and choose the best solution. Also, I have to think carefully about the way to drink beverages I mentioned before and try the best mixing ratio."

Nan Yi moved the stool and sat a little closer to Chen Zongqing. "Uncle Zongqing, Hai Dabai is a young man who can't drink in the lake. Young means vitality, rebellion, and motivation to change the world.

Where are rebellion and motivation manifestations?

It is manifested in denial, denial of some social phenomena, denial of the lifestyle of parents, the sons of farmers do not want to farm like their parents, the sons of workers do not want to enter the factory like their parents, they hate the smell of smoke on their fathers, and they hate their fathers sitting at the dining table and drinking white wine slowly. It takes a while to drink.

However, what most young people hate is not cigarettes and alcohol, but people, their fathers, their incompetent fathers, because they have seen more worlds and compared them, what kind of official is this classmate's father, and what big boss is that of his classmate's father, and his own father can only farm and can only receive half of his salary.

They were holding on to their energy and wanted to live better than their parents, so they were admitted to public-paid technical secondary school and university.

After they enter schools in big cities, they will soon face a test or blow. They have better grades than themselves, better appearance than themselves, and better living standards than themselves. Some classmates have girlfriends, Uncle Zong Qing, how old are you and Aunt?"

"When I was seventeen years old, your aunt was pregnant with Weizong." Chen Zongqing said.

"Young people are almost the same now. They have the idea of ​​falling in love at the age of sixteen or seventeen. However, the current social order is stronger and the management of schools is stricter. Most young people can only feel itchy but dare not take action.

When I go to technical secondary school and university, I stay away from my parents. Some people’s previously suppressed emotions are released. They are all knowledgeable and educated young people. They know very well what can be done and what can’t be done.

Their negative emotions need to be expressed, their ambitions to change the world need to be expressed, their love needs to bloom, and their loss needs to be comforted.

All of this requires companions. Men, no matter what commonality they are, they want to be close and become brothers, they must eat, drink, and smoke together.

What we have to do is to create Hai Dabai into a wine that belongs only to young people. In order to cater to their rebellious psychology, the traditional promotion method is not good and needs to be changed. Therefore, at the beginning, we should not advertise on TV, but use a more special and acceptable way for young people."

Nan Yi said this, and no longer continued, but turned his choreography to other places. "Uncle Zong Qing, it is not a solution for Hex Wine Industry to let Wei Zong be in charge. We need to find a person in charge for it, preferably younger. Can any young people in the village take the lead?"

When Chen Zongqing heard this, he said in embarrassment: "The young people in the village are moving, and the rest are still studying in school."

"Since there is no in the village, then look for it from outside. Uncle Zong Qing, we can't just use the villagers. There are few people in the village. Even if everyone is talented, there are only a few. Nanchen Village is now a big family and a big business is not enough.

Also, using only the villagers will make the young people in the village slack off. They will think that there are not enough people, and there will be a good seat waiting for them to sit in a good or bad place.

There is a saying called the catfish effect, which is to place a catfish in a fish pond. The catfish must eat small fish. In order not to be eaten, the small fish can only swim continuously, and it must swim faster than other similar species. Only in this way can it not be eaten by the catfish.

Similarly, in the industry of Nanchen Village, we need to let some people from other families take up high-level management positions and tell the young people in the village that they can wait to become senior executives because they are from Nanchen Village.”

Nan Yi patted on the table, "No, there are only a few seats. You can only sit if you have the ability. If you don't do business, the village can arrange work, but it is definitely not a management position. You go to Heche Group's workshop to install remote control vehicles, go to Erdong Electronics to make screws, go to Nanchen Wine Industry to work as a packer, and go to Laos to mine. These are all fine, but they can only be hard and tiring positions. A good seat does not depend on division, but on competition."

"I understand everything you said. Wei Zong and his generation came out to work very early and had not studied many books. Let's not talk about our generation. Many of them only knew a few words in literacy classes, and there were only a few promising ones. I have no objection to using outsiders.

However, the next generation in the village also needs to teach well, and teach more promising people. Nanyi, you can also help catch them in the school. Nanchen Primary School has too many Wenchang’s primary school students, and Wenchang has several famous and surnamed people. I’m jealous.”

Chen Zongqing was very moved!

"When I finish my work, I will stay in the village for a while."

When Chen Zongqing heard this, he said excitedly: "Okay."
To be continued...